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Nov 23, 2017 15:59 EEST
November 23 (SeeNews) - CFA Romania, an association of investment professionals, said on Thursday that the state of the country's economy is expected to worsen in the next 12 months.
CFA Romania's macroeconomic confidence indicator fell by 2 points month-on-month to 43.4 points in October, its lowest value since April 2013, CFA said in a monthly survey.
The low score is mainly the result of the negative perception of the current economic situation, an indicator which fell by 4.8 points to 59.1 points in October.
The analysts' expectations regarding the economic situation in Romania in the next 12 months dropped by 0.6 points to 35.5 points in October, the lowest level since October 2012.
CFA analysts said they are expecting, on average, inflation of 2.75% in the period November 2017- November 2018, up 0.39 percentage points compared to their expectations in the previous month.
Romania's annual consumer price inflation accelerated to 2.6% in October, from 1.8% in September, according to data from the national statistical board, INS. In its latest inflation report issued in November, Romania's central bank lifted the end-2017 inflation forecast to 2.7% and kept the 2018 inflation forecast to 3.2%.
The CFA analysts expect an exchange rate of 4.6421 lei ($1.17/ 1 euro) per euro in the next six months and 4.6817 lei per euro in 2018, both up by 121 pips compared to the previous survey.
Also, 59.1% of analysts said they expect global economic conditions to be normal, while 2.3% expect an unfavourable situation and 38.6% are optimistic.
The CFA Society Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index, first released by CFA Society Romania in May 2011, represents an indicator that aims at quantifying financial analysts' expectations regarding economic activity in Romania for a time horizon of one year.
The index takes values between 0 (no confidence) and 100 (complete confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on six questions regarding current conditions of business and labour market; expectations about business, labour market, personal income and personal wealth.
(1 euro = 4.5976 lei)
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