January 26 (SeeNews) - CFA Romania, an association of investment professionals, said on Friday that the state of the country's economy is expected to worsen in the next 12 months.
CFA Romania's macroeconomic confidence indicator fell by 3.1 points month-on-month to 41 points in December, its lowest value since April 2013, CFA said in a monthly survey.
The low score reflects mainly the perception of the current economic situation - an indicator which fell by 0.7 points to 59 points in December, reaching its lowest value since April 2015.
The analysts' expectations regarding the economic situation in Romania in the next 12 months dropped by 4.2 points to 32 points in December, its lowest value since October 2012.
The CFA analysts said they expect, on average, inflation of 3.75% in the January 2018- January 2019 period, up 0.37 percentage points compared to their expectations in the previous month.
Romania's annual consumer price inflation accelerated to 3.3% in December, from 3.2% in November, according to data from the national statistical board, INS. Average annual inflation in 2017 was 1.3%.
The CFA analysts expect an exchange rate of 4.6998 lei ($1.25/ 1.07 euro) per euro in the next six months, up by 107 pips compared to the previous survey, and 4.7428 lei per euro in 2018, up by 99 pips compared to the survey conducted in November.
The Romanian leu weakened to an all-time low against the euro on Monday following massive protests over the weekend and political unrest after a second prime minister resigned in just a year. The central bank, BNR, set its reference exchange rate at 4.6656 lei per euro on Monday.
Some 56.4% of analysts said they expect global economic conditions to be normal, while 7.7% expect an unfavourable situation and 35.9% are optimistic.
The CFA Society Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index, first released by CFA Society Romania in May 2011, represents an indicator that aims at quantifying financial analysts' expectations regarding economic activity in Romania for a time horizon of one year.
The index takes values between 0 (no confidence) and 100 (complete confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on six questions regarding current conditions of business and labour market; expectations about business, labour market, personal income and personal wealth.
(1 euro = 4.6665 lei)