June 17 (SeeNews) - CFA Romania, an association of investment professionals, said on Wednesday that they expect the country's economic output to shrink by 4% in 2020, while the budget gap is expected to widen to 8.5% of the projected gross domestic product (GDP).
Some 39% of analysts polled by CFA in April said that the economic impact of the coronavirus crisis will be felt until the first quarter of 2021, CFA said in a monthly survey.
Therefore, analysts expect a 4% contraction of GDP in 2020, a budget gap of 8.5% and a jobless rate of over 7.8%.
Yet, the survey revealed that CFA analysts expect economic activity in Romania to pick up slightly in the next 12 months.
The index of analysts' expectations regarding the economic situation in Romania in the next 12 months measured 44.1 points in May, up 3.1 points compared to April. Compared with the May 2019 value, the index was 3.7 points lower.
The macroeconomic confidence index rose by 3.7 points month-on-month to 36 points in May.
The perception of the current economic situation improved by 4.8 points month-on-month to 19.4 points in May.
The macroeconomic confidence indicator was 15.5 points lower in May compared to the value in the same month of last year, while the current conditions index was 38.9 points lower.
The CFA analysts said they expect, on average, inflation of 3% in the year ending in June 2021.
Romania's consumer prices rose by 4.04% year-on-year in December, compared to an annual increase of 3.77% in the previous month, the national statistical office said earlier.
The CFA analysts expect an exchange rate of 4.8989 lei ($1.14/ 1.01 euro) per euro in the next six months and 4.9424 lei per euro in the next 12 months.
The CFA Society Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index, first released by CFA Society Romania in May 2011, is an indicator that aims at quantifying financial analysts' expectations regarding economic activity in Romania for a time horizon of one year.
The index takes values between 0 (no confidence) and 100 (complete confidence in the Romanian economy) and is compiled based on six questions regarding current conditions of business and labour market; expectations about business, labour market, personal income and personal wealth.
(1 euro = 4.8350 lei)