October 26 (SeeNews) - CFA Romania, an association of investment professionals, said on Monday that they expect the country's gross domestic product (GDP) to shrink by 4.5% in 2020, and the budget gap to be equivalent to 7.6% of GDP, improving their previous forecast.
In August, the CFA analysts forecast a GDP contraction of 4.7% and a budget gap of 8.3% of GDP in 2020.
Some 52% of analysts polled by CFA in September said that the economic impact of the coronavirus crisis will be felt until the third quarter of 2021, CFA said in a monthly survey.
The analysts also said they expect the jobless rate to exceed 6%.
However, economic activity in Romania is expected to pick up slightly in the next 12 months. The index of analysts' expectations regarding the economic situation in Romania in the next 12 months measured 35 points in September, up 3.8 points compared to August. Compared with the September 2019 value, the index was 3.7 points lower.
The macroeconomic confidence index rose by 1 point month-on-month to 34.3 points in September, while the perception of the current economic situation improved by 10.5 points month-on-month to 33 points. The macroeconomic confidence indicator was 13.2 points lower in September compared to the value in the same month of last year, while the current conditions index was 32.3 points lower.
The CFA analysts said they expect, on average, inflation of 2.87% for the year ending in September 2021. Romania's consumer prices rose by 2.45% year-on-year in September, compared to an increase of 2.68% in August, the national statistical office said earlier.
The CFA analysts expect an exchange rate of 4.9284 lei ($1.2/ 1.01 euro) per euro in the next six months and 4.9996 lei per euro in the next 12 months.
The CFA Society Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index, first released by CFA Society Romania in May 2011, is an indicator that aims at quantifying financial analysts' expectations regarding economic activity in Romania for a time horizon of one year.
The index takes values between 0 (no confidence) and 100 (complete confidence in the Romanian economy) and is compiled based on six questions regarding current conditions of business and labour market; expectations about business, labour market, personal income and personal wealth.
(1 euro =4.8744 lei)