January 26 (SeeNews) - CFA Romania, an association of investment professionals, said on Wednesday it expects the country's gross domestic product (GDP) to have grown by 6.6% in 2021 and the budget gap to be equivalent to 7% of GDP.
Over 36% of CFA analysts polled in December said that the economic impact of the coronavirus crisis will be felt until the second quarter of 2023, CFA said in its latest monthly survey of economic confidence.
In its previous survey published in December, CFA analysts forecast a GDP rise of 6.6% in 2021 and a 7.3% budget deficit. CFA analysts' latest expectations are more pessimistic than those of government, which targets 7% GDP growth in 2021 and a 7.16% budget deficit.
According to CFA, public debt could reach 52.5% in the next 12 months. The CFA macroeconomic confidence index fell to 57.6 points in December, compared to 56.6 points in November, and was 7.2 points higher compared to the value in the same month of last year.
The CFA analysts said they expect an average inflation of 6.06% for the next 12 months. Romania's consumer prices rose by 8.19% year-on-year in December, compared to an increase of 7.80% in November, according to the latest data available from the national statistical office.
The analysts expect an exchange rate of 5.0284 lei per euro in the next six months and 5.0859 lei per euro in the next 12 months.
The CFA Society Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index, first released by CFA Society Romania in May 2011, is an indicator that aims at quantifying financial analysts' expectations regarding economic activity in Romania for a year. The index takes values between 0 (no confidence) and 100 (complete confidence in the Romanian economy) and is compiled based on six questions regarding current conditions of business and labour market; expectations about business, labour market, personal income and personal wealth.
(1 euro=4.9443 lei)