December 20 (SeeNews) - CFA Romania, an association of investment professionals, said on Monday it expects the country's gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 6.6% in 2021, and the budget gap to be equivalent to 7.3% of GDP.
Over 75% of CFA analysts polled in November said that the economic impact of the coronavirus crisis will be felt until the fourth quarter of 2022, CFA said in its latest monthly survey of economic confidence.
In its previous survey published in November, CFA analysts forecast a GDP rise of 6.9% in 2021 and a 6.8% budget deficit. CFA analysts' latest expectations are more pessimistic than those of government, which targets 7% GDP growth in 2021 and a 7.16% budget deficit.
According to CFA, public debt could reach 54.1% in the next 12 months. The CFA macroeconomic confidence index fell to 56.6 points in December, compared to 57.2 points in November, and was 12.1 points higher compared to the value in the same month of last year.
The CFA analysts said they expect, on average, inflation of 5.8% for the next 12 months. Romania's consumer prices rose 7.80% year-on-year in November, compared to 7.94% in October, according to the latest data available from the national statistical office.
Analysts expect an exchange rate of 5.0517 lei per euro in the next six months and 5.1145 lei per euro in the next 12 months.
The CFA Society Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index, first released by CFA Society Romania in May 2011, is an indicator that aims at quantifying financial analysts' expectations regarding economic activity in Romania for a year. The index takes values between 0 (no confidence) and 100 (complete confidence in the Romanian economy) and is compiled based on six questions regarding current conditions of business and labour market; expectations about business, labour market, personal income and personal wealth.
(1 euro=4.9488 lei)