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CFA Romania analysts forecast worsening economic activity

CFA Romania analysts forecast worsening economic activity Romania, economy

BUCHAREST (Romania), August 26 (SeeNews) - CFA Romania, an association of investment professionals, said on Monday that the economic activity in the country is expected to worsen in the next 12 months.

The index of analysts' expectations regarding the economic situation in Romania in the next 12 months measured 44.1 points in July, down 1.9 points compared to June, CFA said in a monthly survey. Compared with July 2018, the index was 6.4 points higher.

The macroeconomic confidence indicator fell by 2.7 points month-on-month to 48.2 points in July, influenced by a mixed perception of the current economic situation - an indicator which fell by 4.1 points on the month to 56.4 points in July.

The macroeconomic confidence indicator was 3.1 points higher in July compared to the same month last year, while the current conditions index was 3.4 points higher year-on-year.

The CFA analysts said they expect, on average, inflation of 3.91% in the year ending in August 2020.

Romania's consumer prices rose by 4.1% year-on-year in July, compared to an increase of 3.8% in the previous month, data from the national statistical office showed.

The CFA analysts expect an exchange rate of 4.7857 lei ($1.12/ 1.01 euro) per euro in the next six months and 4.8358 lei per euro in all of 2019.

The CFA Society Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index, first released by CFA Society Romania in May 2011, is an indicator that aims at quantifying financial analysts' expectations regarding economic activity in Romania for a time horizon of one year.

The index takes values between 0 (no confidence) and 100 ​(complete confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on six questions regarding current conditions of business and labour market; expectations about business, labour market, personal income and personal wealth.

(1 euro = 4.7251 lei)