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CFA Romania analysts forecast improvement in economic activity

CFA Romania analysts forecast improvement in economic activity License: CC0 Creative Commons

BUCHAREST (Romania), June 28 (SeeNews) - CFA Romania, an association of investment professionals, said on Friday that the economic activity in the country is expected to improve in the next 12 months.

The index of analysts' expectations regarding the economic situation in Romania in the next 12 months was 48.1 points in May, up 8.2 points compared to April, CFA said in a monthly survey. Compared with May 2018, the index was 14.2 points higher.

The macroeconomic confidence indicator rose by 4.9 points month-on-month to 51.5 points in May, influenced by a mixed perception of the current economic situation - an indicator which edged down by 1.5 points on the month to 58.4 points in May.

The macroeconomic confidence indicator was 10 points higher in May compared to the same month last year, while the current conditions index was 1.5 points higher year-on-year.

The CFA analysts said they expect, on average, inflation of 4.12% in the year ending in May 2020.

Romania's consumer prices rose by 4.1% year-on-year in May, maintaining the same growth rate recorded in the previous month, data from the national statistical office showed.

The CFA analysts expect an exchange rate of 4.7911 lei ($1.15/ 1.01 euro) per euro in the next six months and 4.8384 lei per euro in all of 2019.

The CFA Society Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index, first released by CFA Society Romania in May 2011, is an indicator that aims at quantifying financial analysts' expectations regarding economic activity in Romania for a time horizon of one year.

The index takes values between 0 (no confidence) and 100 ​(complete confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on six questions regarding current conditions of business and labour market; expectations about business, labour market, personal income and personal wealth.

(1 euro = 4.7351 lei)