OVERVIEW
MAKROECONOMICS
Foreign Trade in Goods of the Republic of Croatia — higher import than export growth rates resulted in only 41.4% coverage; deficit reached HRK 8 billion
EQUITIES
market comment — CROBEX unchanged; regular stock turnover reached HRK 214.7 million
BONDS
market comment — CROBIS added 0.3% on total turnover of only HRK 69.6 million
CBS RELEASES OVERVIEW
- August 8th: Retail Trade, June 2008
- August 8th: Tourism, June 2008
- August 8th : Producers’ Price indices of Industrial Products, July 2008
- August 12th : Building Permits Issued, June 2008
- August 14th: Consumer Price indices, July 2008
- Falling trend in oil prices
- Companies released Q2 results
- Low liquidity on ZSE
MACROECONOMICS
FOREIGN TRADE IN GOODS OF THE REPUBLIC OF Croatia
A slight improvement in foreign trade recorded in May turned negative in June. The coverage of import by export is at low 41.4%, while in the same period last year it stood at 49%. Deficit increased to HRK 8 billion, 10% worse than in May, apropos 39% as compared to June 2007.
Export of goods grew insignificantly in comparison to the previous month, 0,1%, and amounted to HRK 5.7 bn. On the annual level, slight increase of 2% has been showed. In dollars, annual increase is high 19,6%, due to positive effects of dollar depreciation. Import of goods unfortunately recorded faster growth, on annual basis of high 20,9%, while on monthly level it is 5,7%.
According to MIG classification, the biggest cumulative growth of export in the first six months comes from Capital goods (19,8%), while other categories did not record significant increases. The same category showed high cumulative import increase of 17,9%, while oil price movements stimulated cumulative 28,8% increase in import of Energy.
Manufacturing industry still generates export improvements, while other significant categories recorded negative movements. Cumulatively, manufacturing increased by 7.8% in export terms.
Within manufacturing industry, manufacturing of electrical machinery and apparatus recorded the highest growth rate, of 31,9%. High growth rates in export had the manufacture of office machines and computer (24,3%) and manufacture of fabricated metal products (20,1%). Notable drop in cumulative export is seen in manufacture of furniture (14%) and manufacture of tobacco products (12.9%).
As manufacturing category accounts for 84,4% of total import, cumulative 11,7% increase of the mentioned category made the biggest contribution to import increase.
Among sector categories, the highest increase in imports was shown in petroleum products category. In the first six months period (January to June), cumulative increase was 54,9%.
TRADE BALANCE (chart)
THE BIGGEST EXPORT MARKETS OF Croatia (chart)
THE BIGGEST IMPORT MARKETS OF Croatia (chart)
market COMMENT
Financial reports releases did not affect domestic stock market movements significantly. On a weekly basis total stock turnover reached HRK 214,7 million where HRK 41,2 related to block transactions while popular benchmark, CROBEX, showed an increase of 0,01%. Ina stock is still in investors’ focus as its total turnover amounted to HRK 50,8 million. Ina was followed by Croatian Telecom and preferred Adris Group share as they collected HRK 19,8 and 11,4 million in stock turnover, respectively. Regional markets showed mixed performances where the highest increase of 1,9% recorded the composite index of Hungarian, Czech and Polish markets, CECEEUR; Macedonian MBI- 10 also rose, by 0,1% while Belgrade’s BELEX-15 and Sarajevo’s SASX-10 declined by 4,1% and 1%, respectively.
Ericsson Nikola Tesla (ERNT-R-A) - company announced mixed Q2 results. sales rose by 1,4% yoy to HRK 426,8 million. EBIT is higher 24,1% yoy and amounts to HRK 45,6 million, due to the positive effect from Changes in inventories item (HRK - 5,3 million vs. HRK 23,5 million in Q2 2007). Corresponsive margin increased to 10,7% vs. 8,7% in second quarter 2007. EBITDA amounted to HRK 63,7 million (+ 10,8%) and EBITDA margin rose to 14,9%. Net financial result rocketed by 2.052% to HRK 18,6 million as company didn’t have FX losses during last quarter. Net income amounted to HRK 51,4 million (+ 70,6% yoy) and Q2 EPS amounted to HRK 39,0. Erisson NT added 2,8% last week.
Erste bank (RIBA-R-A) - third biggest Croatian bank, in assets terms, released positive Q2 results. Net interest and fee and commission income grew 14% and 29%, respectively. As other income increased more than 10 times, net profit before provision reached HRK 287 million, 52% up. Net income after tax is 65% higher.
Petrokemija (PTKM-R-A) - Kutina based fertilizer producer registered jump in sales and profits, driven with upraised prices of its products (twice this year). Q2 sales increased by 63,4% to HRK 819,5 million, as domestic and foreign sales gave their contribution to this growth. Operating income rocketed from 1,2 m HRK in Q2 2007 up to HRK 69,3 million and corresponsive margin amounted to 8,5%. EBITDA increased by 258,9% yoy to HRK 94,3 million and EBITDA margin more than doubled to 11,5%. Net income amounted to HRK 69,4 million (Q2 2007: - 0,6 m HRK) while Q2 and cumulative earnings per share amounted to HRK 20,8 and 12,2 respectively. This huge improvement didn’t left investors lukewarm and PTKM share soared by 10,4% last week.
Luka Ploce (LKPC-R-A) - port operator released results indicating improvements in operations. sales rose by 37,5% to HRK 49,7 million vs. 36,2 m HRK in Q2 2007. Operating income is higher by 50% yoy, while EBITDA rose by 40,5% to HRK 13,3 million. Net income amounted to HRK 10,7 million or up by 41,5% yoy. Q2 earnings per share amounted to HRK 48,0 while cumulative EPS is at HRK 93,7. Luka Ploce gained 2,3% last week.
Lucidus (LCDS-R-A)- Co announced that it sold 185.000 shares (8,15% of shareholder’s equity) of tourism company Sunce concern JSC to Greek buyout fund Marfin Investment Group. Marfin Investment Group paid total EUR 90 million (USD 142 million) for 49,99% stake in Sunce concern) with two – year option to increase its ownership to 75% (for additional EUR 45 million), what gives total value of cca. HRK 106,0 million for Lucidus’s package or HRK 41,9 per Lucidus share. After this sale, Lucidus still has 185.000 shares in this Sunce concern what gives value of HRK 41,9 per share, or total HRK 83,8 (cash + stake 8,2% stake in Sunce concern). LCDS share added 1,2% last week.
Podravka (PODR-R-A) - food & pharmaceutical company announced its consolidated Q2 results. sales rose by 7,9% yoy to HRK 933,5 million on 20,3% higher foreign sales. Southeastern Europe area was biggest growth generator, the Co reported. Due to the positive impact from Changes in inventories item EBIT is higher by 5,1% and amounts to HRK 31,5 million, while corresponsive margin remain almost unchanged. EBITDA had 4,4% yoy increase to HRK 70,4 million, while EBITDA margin declined to 7,5%. Net financial loss rose by 40,1% on soaring interest expense s. Net inc ome amounted to HRK 7,0 million (+7,1% yoy). share price remained flat last week.
CROBEX index - Zagreb Stock exchange 0,0%
change in 2008. -30,6%
WEEKLY PERFORMANCE (AVERAGE PRICES) (chart)
- August 15th: 1H consolidated results due date
World’s indices weekly performance:
- Dow Jones -0.4%
- S&P +0.2%
- Nasdaq +0.02%
- FTSE +0.4%
- DAX -0.6%
- Nikkei -1.8%
market multiples -shares (table)
FUNDAMENTALS - BONDS (Government bonds, Municipal bonds, Corporate bonds, Government eurobonds) (tables)
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http://www.fima.com , e-mail: fima-fortis@fima.com
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FIMA weekly report 2008 31.pdf, 227 Kb
