OVERVIEW
MAKROECONOMICS
Consumer Price index — inflation continues to rise, CPI amounted to 7,6% in June
Building Permits Issued — number of building permits issued and value of works continue the downturn
EQUITIES
market comment — CROBEX rose 0,3%; regular stock turnover reached HRK 292,7 million; Ina accounted for more than 40% of the total turnover
BONDS
market comment — CROBIS improved 0,1% on total turnover of HRK 684,7 million
CBS RELEASES OVERVIEW
- July 22nd: Industrial production volume index, June 2008
- July 22nd: Construction Work indices, May 2008
- July 29th: indices of Industrial Final Products, first results, June 2008
- July 30th: Foreign Trade in Goods of the R3epublic of Croatia in 2008, June 2008
- July 31st : Tourism in 2008 – monthly and cumulative data, June 2008
- INA — MOL announced its intention to submit a voluntary bid for takeover of Ina
- KODT – released good Q2 results
- Slatinska banka – appeal of Jugobanka a.d. rejected
MACROECONOMICS
CONSUMER PRICE index
The inflation continues to accelerate as the annual rate reached 7,6% in June. This is the highest rate since November 2000 and it is significantly higher than expected level of 7,1%. On the monthly level, the Consumer Price index rose 0,7%, and in relation to December 2007 it recorded an increase of 3,7%.
Food sector continues to have a major role in consumer products price growth considering its share in index calculation, of 29,13%. On the annual level, price growth stood at 13,1% driven with higher prices of following categories: bread and cereals (18,8%), milk (17,1%) and oils and fats (32,6%). Prices of meat and meat products, as well as of fruit, recorded an over-the-average growth of 8,5% and 28,9%, respectively. In food sector, only vegetables recorded price increase that is below the average, of 6,3%.
In the observed period, among other important sectors, an increase of 10% was shown in the prices of Transport. The biggest contribution came from Fuels and lubricants for personal transport equipment as their prices rose 22,5% as result of an upward trend in prices of crude oil. Within this sector, prices of motor cars declined by 3,1% on the average, driven by higher prices of motor fuels.
By selected groups, prices of energy and food rose 11,6%yoy and 11,9%yoy, respectively, while on a monthly level this increase was 1,8% and 0,7%, respectively. In June, prices of goods recorded much higher annual growth rate as compared to services (8,5% vs. 4,7%).
With the annual rate of 7,6%, Croatia is in the range of the CEE average, 7,6% for June. If extremes would not be excluded, the average CPI growth rate for CEE would be at 9,5%.
Inflation growth rate for Euro zone was 4,0%, representing an increase as compared to 3,6% recorded in May.
JUNE CPI IN SELECTED COUNTRIES (chart)
BUILDING PERMITS ISSUED
In May 2008, there were 909 building permits issued, which was by 6.0% less than in May 2007. By type of constructions, 90% out of the total number of permits were issued on buildings and 10% on civil engineering works. Value of works amounted to HRK 1,8 billion or 15% more than in the same period 2007. In buildings construction, the value of works rose 25,1%, while in civil engineering works the value decreased by 14%.
Compared to April, the number of permits issued for buildings decreased by 4,1%, while the value of works per permit issued rose to HRK 1,8 million (+5,4%). In case of civil engineering works, the value of works per permit decreased more than 50%, to HRK 3,7 million.
Cumulative data show that in the first five months, the number of permits issued declined 21,8%, and value of works by 6,1%, to HRK 10,8 billion. Cumulative decline in the value of works by 4,7%, to HRK 7,6 billion in building construction and 9,5% decline in the case of other civil engineering works resulted in decline of total value. According to permits issued in May 2008, it is expected for 1 661 dwellings with the average floor area of 82.9 m2 to be built.
NUMBER OF BUILDING PERMITS ISSUED (chart)
market COMMENT
Last week brought slower growth on domestic stock market. CROBEX increased by 0,3%, while total turnover reached HRK 292,7 million. Low liquidity and slight increase in CROBEX were results of OMW not reacting to announcement of MOL’s intention for giving a voluntary public offer for taking over free shares of Ina. On the other hand, European and American capital markets showed significant gains partially recovering their losses from the last week. American indices, DJ 30 and S&P 500 increased by 3,6% and 1,7%,respectively, French CAC score increase of 4,9% while German DAX rose 3,7% on a weekly basis.
Atlanska plovidba (ATPL-R-A) – Dubrovnik based Atlantska plovidba (ATPL-R-A) held General meeting on July 18th. One of GA decisions was a dividend payment of HRK 50 per share. Record date was on 30th July. Closing price of HRK 2.382 gave a dividend yield of 2,0%.
INA (INA-R-A) - Oil and gas company Ina topped the liquidity board as it collected a weekly turnover of HRK 118,6 million. The announcement of Ina’s strategic partner MOL regarding voluntary bid for 30,1% of shareholders equity attracted investors' attention, last week. In the mentioned offer, MOL is acting together with the Croatian government. The subject of this takeover are all shares that are not owned by the Government. With announcement the offer of MOL became obligated and the minimal price at which the takeover would be performed is weighted trading average during the last three weeks from the date of announcement, July 14th. The investors are now expecting an offer from OMV, who announced its interest to participate in further privatization of Ina. On a weekly level Ina share recorded a minimal fall of 0,3%.
Koncar distributive and special transformers( KODT-R-A, KODT-P-A) - the company released sound Q2 results. Operating revenues rose 20,7%, to HRK 109 million, on 46,2% higher foreign sales. Domestic sales declined 17% on decreased investments of Hrvatska elektroprivreda (electricity supplier) into production and distribution facilities. Operating income increased by 54,3%, to HRK 10,3 million, while corresponding margin rose from 5,3% to 6,8%. EBITDA amounted to HRK 13,5 million what represents an increase of 54,7% as compared to the same period last year. EBITDA margin was 9% vs. 7% from Q2 2007. Net income increased by 51,1%, to HRK 8,1 million, with net operating margin at 5,4%. Ordinary KODT share rose 0,4% last week on a minimal turnover. Higher prices of electricity from July 1st, will provide sustainability of HEP investment plan according to which energy independence will be secured until 2015.
Slatinska banka (SNBA-R-A) - share of Slatina based small sized bank did not react to the corporate news as its closing price remained unchanged at HRK 190 level. Higher Commercial Court rejected an appeal made by Serbian bank Jugobanka regarding decision previously brought by Trade Court in Bjelovar. Namely, Jugobanka at first made a request to Bjelovar based Trade Court to issue a temporary measure that has been rejected.
CROBEX index - Zagreb Stock exchange 0,3%
change in 2008. -31,1%
CROBEX index - Zagreb Stock exchange (chart)
WEEKLYP ERFORMANCE (AVERAGE PRICES) (chart)
The most liquid issues:
- INA
- Croatian Telecom
- Atlantska plovidba
Weekly dropin world’s indices:
- S&P +1,7%
- Dow Jones +3,6%
- CAC +4,9%
- DAX +3,7%
- FTSE +2,2%
market MULTIPLES -SHARES (table)
FUNDAMENTALS - BONDS (Government bonds, Municipal bonds, Corporate bonds, Government eurobonds) (tables)
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FIMA weekly report 2008 29.pdf, 248 Kb
