OVERVIEW
MACROECONOMICS
Industrial Production Volume index — in July 1.8% increase of production on annual level
Foreign Trade in Goods of the Republic of Croatia — higher export than import growth rates resulted in 51.3% coverage; cumulative deficit reached almost HRK 50 billion
EQUITIES
market comment — CROBEX lost 1.2%; share turnover amounted to HRK 257.5 million (HRK 67.4 block transactions)
BONDS
market comment — CROBIS lost 0.3% on total turnover of HRK 296 million
CBS RELEASES OVERVIEW
- September 5th : Retail Trade, July 2008
- September 8th: Tourism, July 2008
- September 9th: Producers’ Price indices of Industrial Products, August 2008
- September 15th: Building Permits Issued, July 2008
- September 15th: Consumer Price indices, August 2008
- Higher than expected GDP growth in USA, 3.3%
- Announcement of MOL’s bid for INA still expected
- Oil prices slightly increased to $115 per barrel
MACROECONOMICS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION VOLUME index
After positive movements in June, with 7.2%industrial production increase, July brought a bit slower growth of 1.8%. Cumulatively, in the first seven months of 2008 industrial production rose 3.9%, while it is 9.5% higher if compared to the average production in 2007.
By Main Industrial Groupings Aggregation, all industries recorded production growth. The highest increase was recorded by non durable and durable consumer products, 3.5% and 2.4%, respectively. Minimal growth was recorded by energy (0.7%), intermediate products (0.5%) and capital goods (0.3%).
After average drop of 1.2% during first half of 2008, Mining and quarrying showed accelerated growth in July, 10.4%. On the other hand, after 8.6% average growth of Electricity, gas and water supply in the first six months, July recorded no changes yoy.
Manufacturing industry recorded small increase of 1.3%. The biggest growth relates to Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products (18.2%), while Manufacture of radio, television and communication equipment and apparatus showed almost a quarter lower production figures than in July 2007.
Manufacture of basic metals and fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment grew by 17.3% and 9.6%, respectively. Production decrease higher than 10% is seen in Manufacture of textiles, Manufacture of wearing apparel, dressing and dyeing of fur, Manufacture of coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel and Recycling.
Food and beverages manufacturing, having the highest weighted average in industrial production index, grew by 3.5% yoy, and almost 24% if compared to 2007 average production.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION VOLUME index (table)
MOVEMENTS OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (chart)
FOREIGN TRADE IN GOODS OF THE REPUBLIC OF Croatia
July brought improvements in foreign trade. After concerning data in June, when the coverage of import by export was only 41.4%, in July it enhanced to 51.3%. Similar coverage have been recorded only during the same month last year. However, on the annual basis, deficit increased 7.5% to HRK 6.8 billion. This is 16% lower than in comparison to June.
Export of goods grew significantly in comparison to the previous month, 26%, and amounted to HRK 7.1 bn. On the annual level, increase of 15% has been showed. Import of goods recorded slower growth, on annual basis of 11%, while on monthly level it is 1.5%.
According to MIG classification, the biggest cumulative growth of export during seven months comes from Energy and Capital goods of 14.2% and 13.5%, respectively. Oil price movements stimulated cumulative 35.3% increase in import of Energy.
Manufacturing industry still generates export improvements, while other significant categories recorded negative movements. Cumulatively, manufacturing increased by 8.5% in export terms. Within manufacturing industry, Manufacturing of electrical machinery and apparatus recorded the highest growth rate, of 24.7%. High growth rates also had the Manufacture of office machines and computer (21.3%) and Manufacture of fabricated metal products (21.4%). Notable drop in cumulative export is seen in Manufacture of furniture (14.5%) and Manufacture of tobacco products (14.8%).
As manufacturing category accounts for 84% of total import, cumulative 10.3% increase of the mentioned category gave the biggest contribution to import increase. However, data on other import categories are even more concerning. Agriculture, hunting and forestry showed import growth of 22.1%, while export dropped 15.4%. Fishing recorded 34.9% decrease of export, with almost 50% increase of import (although small in absolute figures). Mining and quarrying is slightly better in terms of export and import figures are 31.9% up. Electricity, water and gas supply has a negative balance as well, 6.9% export drop vs 32.9% import growth.
TRADE BALANCE (chart)
THE BIGGEST EXPORT MARKETS OF Croatia (chart)
THE BIGGEST IMPORT MARKETS OF Croatia (chart)
market COMMENT
Last week brought us 1.2% decline of domestic popular benchmark. Total stock turnover amounted to HRK 257.5 million, out of which HRK 67.4 million relates to block transactions. The most liquid issues were fertilizer producer Petrokemija (PTKM-R-A), integrated telecom HT (HT-R-A), and oil and gas company Ina (INA-R-A), which collected HRK 30.1 million, HRK 29 million, and HRK 18.6 million in turnover, respectively. Expect for Macedonian index MBI-10 which gained 1.2%, other regional indices did not perform well with Serbian Belex15 falling 3.9%, Sarajevo’s SASX-10 0.2%, while composite index of Hungarian, Czech, and Polish market, CECEEUR, remained unchanged.
Dalekovod (DLKV-R-A) - heavy constructor and power trunk producer remained unchanged, to end the week at HRK 830. The company confirmed that it has won a contract for electrification and equipping of 2nd tube of Mala Kapela and Sveti Rok tunnels. The value of contract is HRK 390 million and it is planned to be finished by summer 2009. Combined Dalekovod’s order book inflow in 2007 and 2008 is currently at HRK 4.65 bn (only large contracts are included into this calculation). The market currently values Dalekovod at P/order book inflow of 0.4.
Ina (INA-R-A) - oil and gas company gained 1.2% after the Prime Minister stated that share swap between the Government and Hungarian oil company Mol is the most possible solution. While expecting Mol’s official turnover bid, the investors are speculating that this solution is good for them as well, since Mol would have to pay only for their shares leaving a possibility for a higher takeover price.
IPK Kandit (IPKK-R-A), Viro (VIRO-R-A) - sugar producer IPK Kandit gained 4.2%, while Viro remained unchanged on weekly basis. Both of these companies submitted takeover bids in privatization of 38% of government owned Zupanja based sugar producer Sladorana. Even though IPK Kandit offered higher takeover price, Viro’s offer includes stronger investment plan and better guaranty package. Decision maker between these two offers is Croatian privatization Fund.
Institut gradevinarstva Hrvatske (IGH-R-A), Tehnika (THNK-R-A) - on a weekly basis, construction consulting company IGH lost 2.7% and Tehnika 3.5%, despite a news that their representatives are currently in Montenegro on a consultation meeting regarding the tender for construction of 169.2 km long highway. IGH and Tehnika are a part of domestic consortium which submitted a bid for this EUR 1.9 bn worth project.
CROBEX index - Zagreb Stock exchange -1,2%
change in 2008. -33,3%
CROBEX index - Zagreb Stock exchange (chart)
WEEKLY CHANGES (AVERAGE PRICE) (chart)
The most liquid issues:
- Petrokemija
- HT
- INA
World’s indices weekly movement:
- Dow Jones –0.7%
- S&P - 0.7%
- Nasdaq –2.0%
- FTSE +2.4%
- DAX +1.3%
- Nikkei +3.2%
market MULTIPLES -SHARES (table)
FUNDAMENTALS - BONDS (Government bonds, Municipal bonds, Corporate bonds, Government eurobonds) (tables)
*****
To view the original document, please click on the link below:
http://reports.aiidatapro.com/CBB/FIMA/FIMA_weekly_report_2008_35.pdf
*****
FIMA FAS Ltd.
42000 Varazdin * Anina 2 * Croatia * Tel: +385-42-390900 * Fax: +385-42-390990 *
http://www.fima.com , e-mail: fima-fortis@fima.com
*****
AII Data Processing Ltd does not endorse in any way, the views, opinions or recommendations expressed above. The use of the Information is subject to the terms and conditions as published by the original source, which you have to read and accept in full prior to the execution of any actions taken in reliance on Information contained herein.
 | SeeNews SeeNews is a business and financial news and information provider which brings its visitors and customers access to detailed coverage on the fast-growing companies, economies and markets of ten Southeast European nations. |
Search for: privatization |
Search for: news |
Search for: tender |
Search for: market |
Search for: share |
Search for: company |
Search for: industry |
Search for: index |
Search for: indices |
Search for: exchange |
Search for: tables |
Search for: chart |
Search for: Croatia |
Search for: Montenegro |
FIMA weekly report 2008 35.pdf, 258 Kb
