market wrap-up
The announcement of the US bailout programdid not significantly influence the Bulgarian equity market. The price fluctuations continued with a recurring sell pressure that did not find any adequate buy demand. Liquidity remained low during the week reflecting the absence of local corporate news. SOFIX lost 3.9% to 820.36 points, BG40 closed at 204.13 points (-1.3%) while BGTR30 decreased the most as the index finished on Friday at 543.61 points (-4.1%). Despite positive Bulgarian macro data (a slighty decreasing inflation rate to 11.8% YoY and a GDP real growth of 7.1%), we do not expect market sentiment to change over the next few weeks, at least not until the release of the Q3 2008 financial reports, due by the end of October.
news highlights
- Moody’s decreased the outlook on the Bulgarian sovereign rating from positive to stable on concerns of growing external imbalances and funding costs. The Baa3 rating, an investment grade, was confirmed.
- Unemployment was 5.89% in August, down 0.07% MoM, according to the Bulgarian Employment Agency.
- Government debt was €5.2bn by end-2007, down 8.4% YoY in absolute terms. The debt was 17.9% of 2007 GDP.
- Gross external debt amounted to €32.7bn, or 99.5% of 2008 GDPe, up 13.2% YTD. Net external debt of the country was €14.6bn, at 44.4% of GDPe and up 23.1% YTD.
- Bulgaria attracted US$8.4bn of FDI in 2007, accordingto the 2008 World Investment report of the UNCTAD. According to the Bulgarian National Bank, 2007 FDI was €6.5bn.
- In Aug 08, broad money (M3) rose 21% YoY to BGN 45.7bn, reaching 71.2% of 2008 GDPe.
- Raiffeisen Bulgaria increased its shareholders' capital by BGN 136.9m from BGN 407.9m to BGN 544.77m by issuing of 136.9m new shares at BGN 1 par value each.
- Ziraat Bankasi, a state-controlled Turkish bank, plans to open five more offices in Bulgaria, its General Director announced.
- City Center Sofia, a 22k sq. m. shopping mall, was soldby Equest Balkan Properties for €101.5m. In 2006, Equest acquired the property still under construction for €94m.
- All Telecoms, an associate of Bianor Holding Group [5BI], has a new owner, Noto investments, which plans to invest €6m in the company. Bianor’s stake is 4.5% vs. 15% before.
- Bulgarian Telecommunication company [5BT] will merge with BTC Mobile after the shareholders approval on an extraordinary shareholders meeting.
- Sparky [SPV], a machine-builder, plans to invest BGN 50m in capacity increase in the next 3 years.
- KRS Saedinenie AD [5T3] plans to list its tourist subsidiary Orfey Club Wellness AD.
- Advance Terrafund [6A6] capital increase attracted BGN 76m. A total of 41m new shares were subscribed.
SOFIX/ BG40 (chart)
BGTR30/ BG REIT (chart)
| Change | SOFIX | BG40 | BGTR30 | BGREIT |
| 1-wk | -3.9% | -1.3% | -4.1% | -0.9% |
| 3-mo | -28.8% | -34.0% | -30.0% | -13.5% |
| YtD | -52.8% | -60.5% | -49.9% | -22.6% |
| 12-mo | -55.4% | -61.2% | -53.4% | -22.2% |
Top Gainers*
| M+S Hydraulic [5MH] | 17.7% |
| Holding Roads [6H2] | 5.1% |
| Shiprepair Yard Odessos [5ODE] | 5.0% |
Top Losers *
| Agria Group Holding [A72] | -15.4% |
| Bulgarian American credit Bank [5BN] | -14.0% |
| EuroIns Insurance AD [5IC] | -9.4% |
* from our list of selected stocks (see last page)
| Turnover statistics | Week 39 |
| Weekly volume (shares) | 6 097 567 |
| Avg. weekly volume YtD | 11 956 670 |
| Weekly turnover (BGN) | 24 505 466 |
| Avg. weekly turnover YtD | 53 648 982 |
FIXED INCOME AND MACRO DATA
Most recent macro data
| BGN/EUR exchange rate | 1.95583 |
| Inflation (HICP, YoY Aug) | 11.8% |
| Inflation (HICP, cumulative 2008) | 7.1% |
| GDP Growth (YoY H1 2008) | 7.1% |
| Unemployment (July 2008) | 5.9% |
| Public External Debt/GDP (July '08) | 11.9% |
| FDI Jan-July '08 (EUR) | 2.8bn |
| C/A Deficit/GDP (Jan-July '08) | -13.9% |
Source: BNB; NSI; National Employment Agency
| Type | Coupon | Maturity | Currency | Yield (%) |
| Treasuries | 3.75% | 16-Feb-10 | BGN | 5.49 |
| Treasuries | 4.75% | 11-Feb-11 | BGN | 5.33 |
| Treasuries | 5.20% | 04-Feb-14 | BGN | 5.23 |
| Eurobonds | 8.25% | 15-Jan-15 | USD | 6.21 |
| Sofibor | Overnight (ON) | BGN | 5.67 | |
| Sofibor | 3-month | BGN | 7.38 | |
| Sofibor | 12-month | BGN | 8.67 | |
| Base Interest Rate | BGN | 5.23 |
FINANCIAL RESULTS
Monbat [5MB]
Monbat 8-month unconsolidated net profit doubles YoY to BGN 15m
Monbat, a car battery producer, reported that its unconsolidated sales revenue grew 40% YoY to BGN 15m in August 2008. Unconsolidated sales revenue in the eight months of the year were reported at BGN 120m, up 67% YoY. The January-August unconsolidated EBT was BGN 20.7m, up 105% YoY. In August alone, EBT rose 44.8% YoY reaching BGN 2.9m. Source: Dnevnik
Blagoevgrad BT [55B]
Bulgaria's largest cigarette factory expects a 50% derease in profits in 2008
Blagoevgrad BT expects a net profit of c.BGN 15m in 2008, only 50% of its profit in 2007. So far in 2008 the plant has produced c. 650m packs of cigarettes for the local market and 400m packs for exports. Although the factory's 2008 output so far is about the same as in 2007, the decrease in profits is caused by higher excise tax imposed by the EU accession, the Deputy Director of Blagoevgrad BT Lili Ivanova explained. Similar shocks are expected at the beginning of 2009 and 2010, when Bulgaria should continue to gradually increase the excise tax in line with EU requirements. Source: Novinte.com
Corporate Commercial Bank [6C9]
Recurring net profit up 5% MoM in August
As of Aug’08, total assets of Corporate Commercial Bank increased by BGN 25m YtD to BGN 1.8bn. Total loans decreased by 6% YtD to BGN 1.3bn, which we link mainly to lower claims of financial institutions. Net profit for the Jan-Aug 08 period came in at BGN 27m. Recurring net profit for August reached BGN 3m (up 5% MoM), which is virtually in line with the monthly average level for H1. We remind that in April the bank reported BGN 3m income from the sale of loan. Source: CORP, FFBH
SELECTED STOCKS INDICATORS (table)
*****
To view the original document, please click on the link below:
http://reports.aiidatapro.com/BBB/FFBH/BWU_Weekly_23-26.09.2008.pdf
*****
Copyright: 2006 First Financial Brokerage House. All rights reserved.For further Information please contact FFBH, 2 Enos Str., 1408 Sofia, BulgariaPhone: +359 2 810 64 21, fax: +359 2 810 64 01, e-mail: ffbh@ffbh.bg, web site: http://www.ffbh.bg
*****
AII Data Processing does not endorse in any way, the views, opinions or recommendations expressed above. The use of the Information is subject to the terms and conditions as published by the original source, which you have to read and accept in full prior to the execution of any actions taken in reliance on Information contained herein.
 | SeeNews SeeNews is a business and financial news and information provider which brings its visitors and customers access to detailed coverage on the fast-growing companies, economies and markets of ten Southeast European nations. |
Search for: investments |
Search for: see |
Search for: news |
Search for: market |
Search for: assets |
Search for: company |
Search for: index |
Search for: exchange |
Search for: report |
Search for: chart |
Search for: credit |
Search for: rating |
Search for: sales |
Search for: Bulgaria |
Search for: institutions |
BWU Weekly 23-26.09.2008.pdf, 75 Kb
