market WRAP-UP
Poor liquidity last week forced SOFIX (1025.54 points, -1.2% WoW), BG40 (252.34 points, -2.20% WoW) and BGTR30 (664.14 points, -1.6% WoW) to slip down, while BGREIT remained unchanged at 87.57 points. The consolidated financial reports of Doverie Obedinen Holding (5DOV, BGN 6.76, +18.20% WoW) pushed the issue to the week gainers place, as a lot of buyers appeared without finding adequate supply at current market levels. Currently, we continue to believe that the market will fluctuate in a tied price range with a quite low liquidity, due to the holiday season and the awaiting of the H1 2008 consolidated reports releases.
news HIGHLIGHTS
- Fitch confirmed Bulgaria's long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'BBB' and 'BBB+', respectively, both with Negative Outlooks.
- Kremikovtzi [4KW]: The government plans to reclaim on Sep 8th a state aid of over BGN 430m to the steelmaker. Combined with the outstanding payments to various state-owned suppliers, the total claim could reach BGN 900m. Separately, the bondholders filed an appeal against the court decision rendering void the collateral of the company’s €325m bond issue.
- Unemployment was 5.96% in July, down 0.1% MoM and 1.28% YoY.
- A new legislation on consumer loans will remove penalties in the case of early repayments, in line with an EU directive.
- A total of 4 300 new building permits were issued in Q2 in Bulgaria, up 20% QoQ, but down 7% YoY.
- The number of passengers at Sofia airport grew 17% YoY in July. London was the top destination with 41 000 passengers.
- A Dutch-registered SPV of Chimimport [6C4] placed privately a €65m exchangeable bond maturing in seven years with a 7% fixed interest. The amount payable at maturity (August 22, 2015) would be 118.9% of the face value. Chimimport has the right to issue an additional €15m of bonds.
- A subsidiary of Chimimport [6C4] is to be elected as a new member of Neochim’s [3NB] board of directors at an extraordinary general shareholders’ meeting on September 26.
- As of July 31st, Agro Finance REIT [6AG] investment portfolio reached 8 736 hectares of agricultural land, up 32.2% YtD. The average acquisition price (all costs included) was BGN 2 453.70 per hectare.
- The local REITs investing in arable land have accumulated 71k ha in their portfolios, shows the latest data. The three biggest, Elana Agricultural Land Opportunity Fund [4EC], Advance Terrafund [6A6] and Agrofinance [6AG], own 86% of the total land portfolio with 28k ha, 24k ha and 8.7k ha, respectively.
- Monbat [5MB] management approved a 115k shares buyback.
- Trade in Arco Towers REIT [5SV] rights to start on Aug 25th. The company offers 130k shares at an issue price of BGN 113.
SOFIX/ BG40 (chart)
BGTR30/ BG REIT (chart)
| SOFIX | BG40 | BGTR30 | BGREIT | |
| 1-wk | -1.2% | -2.2% | -1.6% | 0.0% |
| 3-mo | -18.1% | -27.6% | -21.4% | -8.8% |
| YtD | -41.0% | -51.1% | -38.8% | -16.4% |
| 12-mo | -33.9% | -37.2% | -33.6% | -12.4% |
Top Gainers*
| Doverie-Obedinen Holding [5DOV] | 18.2% |
| Billboard [5BP] | 8.0% |
| Kapitan Diado Nikola [3KN] | 4.2% |
Top Losers *
| M+S Hydraulic [5MH] | -9.7% |
| Toplivo AD [3TV] | -6.5% |
| Central Cooperative Bank [4CF] | -6.2% |
* from our list of selected stocks (see last page)
| Turnover statistics | Week 34 |
| Weekly volume (shares) | 19 727 444 |
| Avg. weekly volume YtD | 11 872 947 |
| Weekly turnover (BGN) | 14 641 085 |
| Avg. weekly turnover YtD | 56 260 021 |
| Source: Bulgarian Stock exchange |
FIXED INCOME AND MACRO DATA
Most recent macro data
| BGN/EUR exchange rate | 1.95583 |
| Inflation (HICP, YoY July) | 14.4% |
| Inflation (HICP, cumulative 2008) | 7.2% |
| GDP Growth (YoY Q2 2008) | 6.3% |
| Unemployment (July 2008) | 5.9% |
| Public External Debt/GDP (June '08) | 9.6% |
| FDI Jan-June '08 (EUR) | 2.1bn |
| C/A Deficit/GDP (Jan-June '08) | -11.5% |
| Source: BNB; NSI; National Employment Agency |
| Type | Coupon | Maturity | Currency | Yield (%) |
| Treasuries | 3.75% | 16-Feb-10 | BGN | NA |
| Treasuries | 4.75% | 11-Feb-11 | BGN | NA |
| Treasuries | 5.20% | 04-Feb-14 | BGN | NA |
| Eurobonds | 8.25% | 15-Jan-15 | USD | NA |
| Sofibor | Overnight (ON) | BGN | 5.33 | |
| Sofibor | 3-month | BGN | 7.31 | |
| Sofibor | 12-month | BGN | 8.68 | |
| Base Interest Rate | BGN | 5.25 | ||
| Source: BNB; UBB |
news IN THE SPOTLIGHT
Bulgarian Stock exchange
BSE Replaces 7 Companies in the BGTR30 index
The board of directors of BSE-Sofia decided to change the companies participating in the BGTR30 equally-weighted index, created on 3 September 2007 with a base level of 1 000 points. The change will be effective as of 23 September 2008.
| Companies removed from BGTR30: | New companies in BGTR30: |
| Holding Varna [5V2] | Holding Roads [6H2] |
| M+S Hydraulic [5MH] | Enemona [E4A] |
| Petrol [5PET] | Zarneni Hrani Bulgaria [T43] |
| Plovdiv Yuri Gagarin BT [4PX] | Moststroy [5MY] |
| Polimeri [51P], | Lead and Zinc Complex [5OTZ] |
| Central Cooperative Bank [4CF] | Sparky Eltos [SL9] |
| Bulgaria Real Estate REIT [5BU] | Trace Group Hold [T57] |
Source: Profit.bg
FINANCIAL RESULTS
Doverie United Holding [5DOV]
Doverie United Holding net income grows 8.1% YoY in H1 2008…
Billboard [5BP]
Strong top-line growth and improved net profitability in H1…
Stara Planina Hold [5SR]
Stara Planina Hold net income in H1 down 10% YoY…
SELECTED STOCKS INDICATORS (table)
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http://reports.aiidatapro.com/BBB/FFBH/BWU_Weekly_18-22.08.2008.pdf
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Copyright: 2006 First Financial Brokerage House. All rights reserved.For further Information please contact FFBH, 2 Enos Str., 1408 Sofia, BulgariaPhone: +359 2 810 64 21, fax: +359 2 810 64 01, e-mail: ffbh@ffbh.bg, web site: http://www.ffbh.bg
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BWU Weekly 18-22.08.2008.pdf, 83 Kb
