market WRAP-UP
SOFIX dropped to a 27-month low on Tuesday as the market followed the down moves worldwide. The session started in total panic as predominantly local retail investors were selling pushing the prices heavily down. Later buyers appeared being more than cautious, they were predominantly bottom fishing. The index closed at 885.42 (-4.90%) easily crossing the 900 bps barrier. BG40 performed even worse, losing 6.08% to 213.49, a level not seen since January 2007. Among the top losers were Chimimport (6C4, BGN 6.052, -10.87%), Sopharma (3JR, BGN 3.30, -10.33%) and Lead and Zink Complex (5OTZ, BGN 22.20, -11.90%), some of the most actively traded. The total return index BGTR30 lost 4.11% to 583.51 bps.
| Sofix | BG 40 | BGREIT | BGTR30 | |
| Value | 885.42 | 213.49 | 83.41 | 583.51 |
| 1-day change (%) | -4.90 | -6.08 | -0.02 | -4.11 |
| 7-day change (%) | -10.52 | -11.99 | -2.52 | -10.29 |
| 90-day change (%) | -26.58 | -34.86 | -12.52 | -27.61 |
| 365-day change (%) | -47.52 | -53.87 | -16.59 | -41.65 |
Note: BG REIT and BG TR30 started 31 August 2007
| BSE Daily Volume (shares) | 1 812 402 |
| BSE Daily Volume (BGN) | 6 874 080 |
| Avg Daily Turnover YTD (BGN) | 11 481 725 |
| Avg Daily Turnover 12 mo. (BGN) | 19 393 894 |
Most recent macro data
| Inflation (HICP, M/M August) | -0.1% |
| Inflation (HICP, cum. 2008) | 7.1% |
| LEONIA Reference Rate | 5.37% |
| SOFIBOR /3 months/ | 7.28 |
| GDP Growth (Y/Y Q2 2008 preliminary) | 7.1% |
| Unemployment (July 2008) | 5.96% |
exchange rates
| Current | Change | |
| BGN/USD | 1.37088 | -0.01123 |
| BGN/EUR | 1.95583 | Fixed |
| EUR/USD | 1.4267 | 0.01159 |
DAILY TRADING (selected stocks)
All figures in BGN (BGN/EUR rate fixed at 1.95583)
Compensatory Instruments (table)
ECONOMY AND POLITICS
Macroeconomic news and statistics
Bulgaria’s C/A deficit widens by 47% YoY in Jan-July 2008
Bulgaria’s current account deficit (CAD) expanded by 47% YoY to EUR 4.6bn in Jan- July 2008 according to data released by the Bulgarian National Bank. This means that the CAD rose to 13.9% of BNB’s projected GDP compared to 10.7% from 2007 GDP for the same period last year. FDI totalled EUR 2.8bn in Jan-July 2008 thus covering only 62.5% of the CAD.
The CAD deterioration was driven primarily by the country’s trade deficit which increased due to soaring oil and natural gas prices. Under data of the National Statistical Institute, Bulgaria imported BGN 4.4bn worth of mineral fuels and oils by end-May. Exports (FOB) reached to EUR 9.2bn against EUR 7.5bn for the Jan July period in 2007, increasing by 22.5% YoY compared to a 10.1% jump during the same period in the previous year. Imports (FOB) were EUR 14.4bn, against EUR 11.3bn for January – July 2007, increasing by 27.4% YoY against 18.7% for the same period in 2007. (Dnevnik).
Source: Dnevnik
IT
Estonia ranks first in Eastern Europe in EIU's IT Competitiveness index, Bulgaria is 11th
Estonia ranked top in Eastern Europe in the EIU IT Competitiveness index while Bulgaria came 11th. The other top performers in Eastern Europe are Slovenia, Hungary and the Czech Republic while the countries that are ranked below Bulgaria are Russia, Ukraine, Kazakshtan and Azerbeijan. The United States ranks first in the world in 2008, maintaining its top position from the previous year closely followed by Taiwan, Sweden and Denmark.
Source: Profit.bg
CORPORATE news
First Investment Bank [5F4]
Moody’s confirms ratings of First Investment Bank AD
Moody's Investors Service has today confirmed the Bank Financial Strength rating (BFSR) and the Ba1 long-term local and foreign currency deposit ratings of First Investment Bank AD. The rating agency has also confirmed the senior unsecured ratings and subordinated debt ratings of Ba1 and Ba2, respectively. This rating action concludes the rating review that was initiated in May 2008, following the short-lived run on customer deposits experienced by FIB during the second week of May.
Moody’s analyst Panayatiou said that the ratings confirmation acknowledges the bank's success in gradually regaining its customer confidence and in reinstating customer deposit balances at yearend 2007 levels. Furthermore, in concluding the review, Moody's sites bank data which suggests that despite higher funding costs, FIB has been able to maintain interest rate margins at healthy levels and to support its profitability levels.
Nonetheless, despite confirmation of the ratings, Moody's points out that FIB continues to face the challenge of maintaining an appropriate level of customer deposits, with commensurate funding cost levels, and replacing its current market funding at acceptable costs under the current tougher market conditions. Furthermore, Moody's notes that additional pressures may arise from a potential deterioration in the loan quality of FIB, as well as for other Bulgarian banks, as a result of recent strong credit growth in the developing Bulgarian economy.
Source: Reuters
Lomsko pivo [6L1]
Lomsko Pivo to invest BGN 3.5m
Bulgaria's brewery Lomsko Pivo AD, which is part of Enemona's portfolio, plans to invest BGN 3.5m to improve the quality of its production according to the company’s corporate policy director Prokopi Prokopiev. New bottling and labelling machines will be installed. In 2007 Lomsko Pivo has invested BGN 1.1m and has managed to decrease energy expenditure by 16%.
Source: Pari, FFBH
Funds
The assets of Bulgarian mutual funds decrease by 3.6% MoM to BGN 534m
The assets of the Bulgarian mutual funds decreased by 3.6% or BGN 20m during the period August 15 – September 15 to BGN 534m according to Investor.bg. This is a slowdown in the reduction of mutual funds assets since during the period July 15 – August 15 the funds’ net assets dropped 6.3% MoM to BGN 554m.
Source: Investor.bg, FFBH
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BMU17-09-08.pdf, 74 Kb
