market wrap-up
SOFIX registered its largest single day drop ever on Monday and closed at 688.27 (-8.43%). The 43 month low was achieved, as negative news worldwide set investors in panic with low liquidity “lending a hand” too. Top loser was First Investment Bank (5F4), where heavy sell pressure pushed the price to the BGN 3.20 (-22.9%) with total volume of close to 308k. The other banks suffered too as Bulgarian American credit Bank (5BN, BGN 32.77, -17%), Central Cooperative Bank (4CF, BGN 2.60, -10.3%) and Corporate Commercial Bank (6C9, BGN 79.99, -5.3%) all declined in m.cap, although on quite moderate volumes. BG40 fixed 171.48 (-7.74%) and BGTR30 reached a new all-time low of 455.54 (-7.94%). Synergon Holding was (6S7, BGN 3.661, -18.5%) with 113k traded, Monbat - (5MB, BGN 6.90, -16.2%) and Chimimport - (6C4, BGN 4.56, -13.5%) as over 58k and 60k changed hands, respectively. Zarneni Hrani (T43) crashed 13.7% to BGN 1.07 with more than 200k traded.
| Sofix | BG 40 | BGREIT | BGTR30 | |
| Value | 688.27 | 688.27 | 70.94 | 455.54 |
| 1-day change (%) | -8.43 | -8.43 | -7.22 | -7.94 |
| 7-day change (%) | -19.05 | -19.05 | -12.27 | -18.16 |
| 90-day change (%) | -37.47 | -37.47 | -24.56 | -39.08 |
| 365-day change (%) | -64.75 | -64.75 | -29.06 | -54.45 |
Note: BG REIT and BG TR30 started 31 August 2007
| BSE Daily Volume (shares) | 3 399 276 |
| BSE Daily Volume (BGN) | 8 715 814 |
| Avg Daily Turnover YTD (BGN) | 11 120 529 |
| Avg Daily Turnover 12 mo. (BGN) | 18 526 900 |
Most recent macro data
| Inflation (HICP, M/M August) | -0.1% |
| Inflation (HICP, cum. 2008) | 7.1% |
| LEONIA Reference Rate | 5.71% |
| SOFIBOR /3 months/ | 7.506% |
| GDP Growth (Y/Y Q2 2008 preliminary) | 7.1% |
| Unemployment (August 2008) | 5.89% |
exchange rates
| Current | Change | |
| BGN/USD | 1.43452 | 0.02074 |
| BGN/EUR | 1.95583 | Fixed |
| EUR/USD | 1.3634 | -0.02 |
Sofix/ BG 40 / BGREIT / BGTR30 (charts)
DAILY TRADING (selected stocks)
All figures in BGN (BGN/EUR rate fixed at 1.95583)
Compensatory Instruments (table)
ECONOMY AND POLITICS
Macroeconomic news and statistics
Slow down of economic growth to 3-5%
The worst-case scenario of theMinistry of Finance is for a slowdown of the economic growth next year to 3%, as envisaged in the 2009 draft budget. A second scenario is for just a 1.5% to 2% down on this-year’s growth.
The base inflation is forecast at 3.5% or a maximum of 5% depending on the rise of the administrative costs and gas prices, said deputy finance minister Lyubomir Datsov. The inflation rate will rise still by another 1-1.4 points till the end of the year on the back of the massive gas hike.
The growth ofthe Bulgarian economy hinges on the development of the global financial markets plus the prices of goods and raw materials, but is also in the hands of politicians who have to decide which way the budget surplus will go – to infrastructure projects or to higher wages and pensions, Datsov said.
The final version of the draft budget should be tabled with Parliament by the end of the month.
Economic growth will be in the range of 5%, Prof. Garabed Minasyan of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences told Dnevnik daily pointing out that higher budget costs could stand in the way of sufficient surplus needed to stave off further economic instability. Georgi Angelov, economist with Open Society Institute, said the Cabinet should revise its surplus plans to steer the economy away from the serious trouble brewing down the roa.
Source: Dnevnik
Real estate
Not many business properties finished this year so far
New-built business properties have increased by a small number in first-half 2008 but strong growth is expected over the next two years, showed a survey of international companies Colliers and Raiffeisen Real Estate.
Raiffeisen Real Estate estimated that foreign direct investments in the market have sharply declined by 37% to EUR 652m in the six months through June. The office space expanded by 7% and will double in the coming two years, said Colliers. Raiffeisen Real Estate said the volume of vacant offices has fallen to less than 5 percent with supply set to outdo demand.
The proliferation of shopping malls has boosted the retail space market by 31%. The segment will see an eightfold growth over the next two years resulting in smaller rent prices, Raiffeisen Real Estate said.
The logistics and industrial segment laboured its way under administrative hurdlesand the global financial crisis, said Colliers. The lettable area in Sofia rose by 14% to 207k sq. m.
Source: Dnevnik
Insurance
The insurance market grew by 24% YoY in July
Over the Jan-July 2008 period non-life gross written premiums /GWP/ reached BGN 847.6m (up 23% YoY) while life GWP totalled BGN 156.3m (up 28% YoY). Motor vehicle premiums accounted for 69% of the market. The share of the top five insurers is 61% (62.5% a year ago).
Source: FSC, FFBH
CORPORATE news
Olovno tzinkov komplex AD [5OTZ]
The merger of Gorubso ROF into Gorubso-Madan was finalised
The procedure for the merger of Gorubso ROF into Gorubso-Madan is complete. On September 30, the change is entered into the Commercial Register, thus Gorubso-ROF ceases to exist, and all assets, including rights and obligations, are passed to the successor company, Gorubso-Madan. The capital of the new company is BGN 780k, allocated into 780k shares with a face value of BGN 1.
At the Annual General Meeting of Lead and Zink Complex [5OTZ] held on July 10 the company’s shareholders rejected the proposal for a merger between the company and Gorubso-Madan. Instead of that the shareholders decided that after the absorption of Gorubso ROF by Gorubso-Madan the management of Lead and Zink Complex should start negotiations for the purchase of shares in Gorubso-Madan, as the negotiated terms of a potential deal shall be presented at an extraordinary meeting.
Source: Investor.bg, FFBH
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BMU07-10-08.pdf, 70 Kb
