market WRAP-UP
The month started with a rather negative trading session as heavy sell pressure pushed the indices down. Among the indices the top loser was SOFIX which lost -1.96% to 482.51 bps. The main down pressure come from Holding Roads (6H2, BGN 7.00, -12.50%), Sopharma (3JR, BGN 2.10, -5.83%), Industrial Holding Bulgaria (4ID, BGN 2.80, -4.76%) and Chimimport (6C4, BGN 2.67, -3.26%). The price weighted BG40 lost 1.78% to 138.73 bps and the equally weighted BGTR30 declined 1.26% to 454.6 bps. There were no volumes on the REIT market and the quiet trades kept price levels unchanged.
| Sofix | BG 40 | BGREIT | BGTR30 | |
| Value | 482.51 | 138.73 | 54.53 | 354.60 |
| 1-day change (%) | -1.96 | -1.78 | -0.73 | -1.26 |
| 7-day change (%) | -8.40 | -3.03 | -1.18 | -2.81 |
| 90-day change (%) | -51.75 | -44.08 | -38.03 | -45.63 |
| 365-day change (%) | -74.48 | -76.37 | -45.47 | -64.54 |
Note: BG REIT and BG TR30 started 31 August 2007
| BSE Daily Volume | 675 636 |
| BSE Daily Turnover | 1 519 867 |
| Average Daily Turnover YTD | 10 662 735 |
| Average Daily Turnover 12 months | 17 082 188 |
Most recent macro data
| Inflation (HICP, M/M September) | 0.9% |
| Inflation (HICP, cum. 2008) | 8.0% |
| LEONIA Reference Rate | 5.08% |
| SOFIBOR /3 months/ | 7.846% |
| GDP Growth (Y/Y H1 2008) | 7.1% |
| Unemployment (September 2008) | 5.8% |
exchange rates
| Current | Change | |
| BGN/USD | 1.52537 | -0.00777 |
| BGN/EUR | 1.95583 | Fixed |
| EUR/USD | 1.2822 | 0.0065 |
Sofix/ BG 40 / BGREIT / BGTR30 (charts)
DAILY TRADING (selected stocks)
All figures in BGN (BGN/EUR rate fixed at 1.95583)
Compensatory Instruments (table)
ECONOMY AND POLITICS
Macroeconomic news and statistics
EC warns of vast c/a gap, high inflation in Bulgaria
Bulgaria is in for a slowdown of the economic growth, consumption and investment, the European Commission said in its autumn report released on Monday.
According to the report, the country is facing the widest current account deficit and one of the highest inflation rates within the European Union in 2008 and 2009.
Forecasts are for a current account gap of 23.9% of GDP for 2008. The ratio is expected to stay through 2009 and 2010 with a tiny 1% decrease in the gap possible annually.
Bulgaria was ranked number two on Europe’s inflation list for 2008. The Commission sees the rate jumping to 12.4% by year’s end second only to Latvia, where it is seen passing the 15% mark against an EU average of 3.9%. Consumer prices in Bulgaria will rise by 7.9% in 2009 and ease to 6.8% in the following year.
EC projections are for a GDP growth of 6.5% in 2008 and 4.5% for 2009.
Source: Dnevnik
Financial sector
Four banks collect 72% of the new deposits
The expensive deposit campaigns carried out by the banks in the last ten months gave positive results. For the 9 months of 2008, they gathered over BGN 2.1bn from households and businesses, data of Bulgarian National Bank show. Almost 72% of them were gathered by four credit institutions: United Bulgarian Bank, Raiffeisenbank, First Investment Bank and UniCredit Bulbank.
Source: Pari
Financial sector
Fitch Ratings gives high valuation to ExpressbankWorld rating agency Fitch Ratings gave Societe Generale Expressbank the top for Bulgaria longterm rating A- with negative perspective. The Bulgarian branch of the French bank got the highest valuation due to the fact that it can rely on the support of the parent company. The negative perspective is the result of the negative long-term BBB and BBB+ foreign and local currency rating given to Bulgaria, respectively.
Source: Pari
CORPORATE news
Bulgartabac Holding AD [57B]
Cigarette maker Pleven BT to go on sale on bourse
The Pleven processing plant of Bulgaria’s tobacco monopoly Bulgartabac will go private on the stock exchange, said Vladimir Karolev, of the buy-side advisory team of the holding company.
The sell-off method will be decided upon next week, said Karolev adding that the divestitures of Bulgartabac’s Sofia [3JU] and Blagoevgrad [55B] plants are delayed at the political level. According to him, current privatization strategy has to be revised before proceeding and that none of the two companies is likely to go private before the end of the year despite stated interest coming from strategic investors of global and regional scale.
Meantime, Tobacco Factory Plovdiv [4CV] which was privatised in July will kick off cigarette production by the end of November, said Zlatomira Draganska, executive director of the plant’s new owner, Sigma Consulting. The company will produce its own brands at the plant but is also negotiating with prospective tolling partners, Draganska said without elaborating further. Bulgartabac declined to comment on whether it is in talks over cigarette production at its former factory.
Source: Dnevnik
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