market WRAP-UP
The week started with calm session. SOFIX closed with small loss at 465.95 (-0.40%), BG40 fixed 142.40 (-0.26%), BG REIT index lost 0.69% to 53.08, while BGTR30 advanced by 0.13% to 355.17. BSE's daily turnover was only BGN 2.32m as deals in corporate bonds accounted for almost BGN 1m of the amount. A total 86 issues were traded predominantly in small volumes and most of them registered negative changes. Among the top losers were Albena (6AB, BGN 37.10, -4.62%), Neohim (3NB, BGN 63.11, -2.91%) and Industrial Capital Holding (4I8, BGN 2.90, -9.38%). On REIT territory the most interesting move came from FairPlay Properties REIT (6F3, BGN 0.85, +8.72%) where more than 401k shares changed hands.
| Sofix | BG 40 | BGREIT | BGTR30 | |
| Value | 465.95 | 142.40 | 53.08 | 355.17 |
| 1-day change (%) | -0.40 | -0.26 | -0.69 | 0.13 |
| 7-day change (%) | -3.43 | 2.65 | -2.66 | 0.16 |
| 90-day change (%) | -54.83 | -45.01 | -39.85 | -47.59 |
| 365-day change (%) | -74.45 | -74.67 | -46.92 | -64.48 |
Note: BG REIT and BG TR30 started 31 August 2007
| BSE Daily Volume (shares) | 926 981 |
| BSE Daily Volume (BGN) | 2 319 654 |
| Avg Daily Turnover YTD (BGN) | 10 478 395 |
| Avg Daily Turnover 12 mo. (BGN) | 16 559 613 |
Most recent macro data
| Inflation (HICP, M/M September) | 0.9% |
| Inflation (HICP, cum. 2008) | 8.0% |
| LEONIA Reference Rate | 5.58% |
| SOFIBOR /3 months/ | 7.826% |
| GDP Growth (Y/Y H1 2008) | 7.1% |
| Unemployment (September 2008) | 5.8% |
exchange rates
| Current | Change | |
| BGN/USD | 1.51721 | -0.01605 |
| BGN/EUR | 1.95583 | Fixed |
| EUR/USD | 1.2891 | 0.01349 |
Sofix/ BG 40 / BGREIT / BGTR30 (charts)
DAILY TRADING (selected stocks)
All figures in BGN (BGN/EUR rate fixed at 1.95583)
Compensatory Instruments (table)
ECONOMY AND POLITICS
Macroeconomic news and statistics
Fitch cuts Bulgaria’s rating on recession concerns
Fitch Ratings lowered Bulgaria’s sovereign rating less than two weeks after the country was downgraded by Standard & Poor’s. The agency also decreased the ratings of Hungary, Romania and Kazakhstan.
Bulgaria’s LT foreign currency issuer default cut one notch to ‘BBB-‘ Stable Outlook from ‘BBB’ Negative Outlook, the lowest on the investment-grade scale. The long-term local currency issuer default rating is changed to "BBB" Stable Outlook from "BBB+" Negative Outlook. Fitch affirmed the "F3" short-term foreign currency issuer default rating.
The downgrade reflected the increasing risk of a recession in response to a marked decline in external financing inflows, which would necessitate a sharp contraction in domestic demand to rein in the current account deficit, Fitch said in a statement.
However, the budget surplus and the currency board mechanism pegging the lev to the euro would keep Bulgaria afloat even if the economy registers two successive quarters of negative growth, the agency added.
Following the rating action on Bulgaria, Fitch cut the ratings of five local banks. The list includes UniCredit Bulbank, Societe Generale Expressbank, EIBank, Allianz Bank Bulgaria and Eurobank EFG. Fitch downgraded to ‘BBB+’ from ‘A-‘ the long-term foreign Issuer Default rating (IDR) of Societe Generale Expressbank, Eurobank EFG, EIBank and Allianz Bank Bulgaria.
UniCredit Bulbank's support rating was lowered to '2' from '1'.
Source: Dnevnik
Insurance
Most insurers may raise MTPL insurance prices by end-2008
Almost all of Bulgaria’s major insurers should raise the price of the mandatory motor third-party liability insurance by the year’s end.
Euroins would increase the price of the policy for Sofia-registered vehicles with engines of up to 1,800 cu cm up to BGN 176.40 from BGN 137.40 at present as of November 15, said executive director Anton Pironski.
Prices at market leader Bulstrad may be increased by some 6% but head Rumen Yanchev declined to give any timeframe. The price hike is prompted by growing car accident claims and the rising cost of auto repairs, he said.
Armeets auto insurance head Ivan Mladenov said the company also planned major price hike. Victoria should increase prices by up to 30% no later than December 1, said executive director Dancho Danchev. Bul Ins would adjust prices in early 2009, said Bul Ins executive director Petrozar Petkov.
Source: Dnevnik
CORPORATE news
Petrol AD [5PET]
Fitch downgrades Petrol credit rating
On Monday Fitch Ratings has downgraded fuel distributor Petrol's Issuer Default rating (IDR) and the senior unsecured rating for its EUR100m notes due in 2011 to 'CCC' from 'B-'. Both ratings have been removed from rating Watch Negative. Fitch has assigned a Negative Outlook to the Long-term IDR.
The downgrades were prompted by a sizeable share repurchase undertaken by Petrol in Q2 2008, increased financial leverage and Fitch's concerns about corporate governance. Concern about diminished earnings, due to an asset disposal of an important part of the petrol station network, and large losses on derivatives transactions have also negatively affected Petrol AD's Business and financial profile.
The Recovery rating on the notes is affirmed at 'RR4.'
Source: Fitch
Agro Finance ADSIC [6AG]
Agro Finance REIT agricultural land portfolio reaches 100 000 dka in end-Oct
In end-Oct 2008 Agro Finance REIT agricultural land portfolio amounted to 99 613 dka, company announced. It has grown 51% YtD and almost doubled on annual basis. The REIT has invested BGN 26m in land (including acquisition costs) over the years which equaled to BGN 263 per decare. 96% of the land was classified into categories 1 to 6.
Source: Investor.bg; FFBH
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