Abstract
The BSE indices closed the week on a bearish trend, closely marking off the external decreases. Even though the market liquidity gained a significant advance, the stocks continued the sink, as all the 3 indices lost over 5 percents. As we’ve expected, the stock markets faced a strong uncertainty in the absence of any positive Information. Last week, the Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke expressed his concern regarding the US economic growth for 2008 as a result of the mortgage crisis. To a national level, the National Bank presented on Monday the quarterly report on inflation, raising the estimated rate for the end of the year by 1.8 points, up to 5.7%. The Bucharest Stock exchange wasn’t influenced only by the external trend. Standard & Poors reevaluated Romania’s rating and lowered it from “stable” to “negative”. On the day of the announcement, the BSE indices dropped more than 2% while the liquidity reached the highest level of the week.
As for the next period, we expect a growing market liquidity since the next week most of the companies are due to release their financial statements for the third quarter. Nevertheless, we don’t believe that the stock market is going to take back the ascending trend too soon, at least not until the international financial markets would be stable again. Also, we believe that due to the recent decreases, some of the companies reached an attractive price and implicitly have a good potential at least on a short term, giving investors the opportunity to revise their portfolios.
Last week
Last week BET and BET-C lost 6.05% and 5.47% respectively, while BET-FI went down 6.91%. The average trading volume gained 41.70% to 47.38 million lei daily, while the market capitalization went down 5.62 percent to 83.03 billion lei.
BVB indices
| indices | Change | Nov 02, 2007 | Nov 09, 2007 |
| BET | -6.05% | 9921.68 | 9321.43 |
| BET-C | -5.47% | 6872.21 | 6496.37 |
| BET-FI | -6.91% | 78724.01 | 73281 |
BET (chart)
Top Extremes
Carbochim Cluj-Napoca had the most significant increase of the week (+20%), on a higher volume than usually. Basically, this evolution was sustained by the last two trading sessions of the week, when approximately 0.1% of the total number of shares were traded. The company announced a drop of more than 50% of the profit for the first 6 months compared to the similar period of the previous year, and 66% lower than the estimated level for the two quarters. On the 14th of November the company is expected to release the results for the third quarter; the management of CBC estimated for the mentioned period a net income of around 1.8 million lei, 24% higher compared to the one of the last year. Artrom gained approximately 3 percents, on a high trading volume on Friday, as investors tried to anticipate the quarterly results. According to the financial statements released after the market closure, the company reported a loss of about 15 millions lei, as the expenditures level exceeded the ascendant trend of the revenues.
TOP 5 - PRICE GAINERS [RON]
| Symbol | Change | Nov 02, 2007 | Nov 09, 2007 |
| CBC | 20.13% | 14.9 | 17.9 |
| ART | 3.08% | 64.9 | 66.9 |
| FLA | 1.35% | 0.37 | 0.375 |
| PCL | -0.24% | 4.11 | 4.1 |
| ATB | -0.54% | 1.84 | 1.83 |
CBC (chart)
ASA suffered the most seriouscorrection last week, a 28.68% decrease. According to the company’s communiqué regarding the convocation notice of Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders (5th of December), the agenda includes the proposal of transferring the agricultural credit portfolio to Omniasig Vienna Insurance Group S.A.
TOP 5 - PRICE LOSERS [RON]
| Symbol | Change | Nov 02, 2007 | Nov 09, 2007 |
| ASA | -28.68% | 0.68 | 0.485 |
| STZ | -21.11% | 0.9 | 0.71 |
| ZIM | -15.12% | 4.3 | 3.65 |
| ECT | -12.50% | 0.12 | 0.105 |
| AZO | -12.00% | 0.225 | 0.198 |
ASA (chart)
Top Volume
BRD, the SIF’s and TLV were the most traded last week. Compared to its total number of shares the most significant trades were conducted with Broker’s shares, followed by Altur Slatina.
TOP 5 - TOTAL VOLUME [RON]
| Symbol | Volume |
| SIF5 | 37,533,510 |
| BRD | 36,544,969 |
| SIF2 | 25,847,187 |
| TLV | 24,998,460 |
| SIF1 | 16,962,024 |
TOP 5 - VOLUME (% of subscribed capital)
| Symbol | Volume / Number of Shares |
| BRK | 1.85% |
| ALT | 1.75% |
| SIF5 | 1.59% |
| SIF2 | 1.49% |
| SOCP | 1.11% |
This year, up until now...
Since the beginning of the year BET and BET-C advanced 15.79 and 29.28 percent, respectively, while BET-FI is 16.30 percent higher than its level on 19th of December 2006. The SIFs and Banca Transilvania had the highest trading volume for this period. The trades with Altur Slatina, broker Cluj, SIF Moldova, SIF Oltenia and Siretul Pascani had the largest proportion in the companies’ capital.
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Copyright: 2006 SSIF Confident Invest Bucuresti SA. All rights reserved.
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Phone: +40 21 320 21 02, fax: +40 21 320 21 03, e-mail: research@confidentinvest.ro, web site: http://www.confidentinvest.ro
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Weekly Update Nov 9 2007.pdf, 127 Kb
