Summary
Although since the beginning of the year the BSE indices lost over 20% and the high level of volatility together with the speculative transactions without very well defined fundamentals had changed the stock exchange into a daily ping-pong game, the last week we witnessed a seeming state of coolness. The beginning of the week was very volatile for the international markets as for the first time in 5 years the US service sector shrank increasing recession fears. But the approval of the plan aimed to revive the US economy by the Congress managed to induce a positive feeling among the investors, as most of the international indices closed the week on small falls or were stationary.
On the Bucharest Stock exchange we had the same low level of liquidity and the ordinary correlation with the mature markets, but the falls were more moderate in the expectation of the companies’ financial statements for 2007. Despite the fact that Fitch changed Romania’s rating perspective from stable to negative, because of the high current account deficit, the National Bank maintained its monetary policy consistent with the European union’s one: inflation targeting. NBR increased the prediction for the inflation rate in 2008 from 4.3% to 5.9%, among the main reasons for this change being the last two quarters’ turmoil on the world financial markets and the recent currency depreciation. Therefore the NBR board decided to opt for a more strict monetary policy as it decided to raise the monetary policy rate by 1 percentage point to 9%, to adopt additional prudential measures via higher provisioning for foreign-currency denominated loans extended to unhedged borrowers and reiterated that it will continue to manage the money market liquidity via open-market operations.
Also, AVAS announced through an Emergency Ordinance, subject to public debate that the persons who have had a labor contract with Petrom since 29.08.2003 have the right to acquire SNP shares for the same price the current major shareholder paid: 0.2158 lei. Besides, the sale of 8% of the company’s total number of shares will be made directly to those eligible persons. Petrom’s shares went up slowly on the announce day (+0.26%), as the last year wasn’t very profitable for the shareholders (the shares went down more than 30% since February 2007). The company will release its preliminary financial statements on the 26th of February.
Likewise, next week most of the companies are expected to release the financial results for 2007, but the current fragile macro economical conditions could curb if not a revival of the ascendant trend then at least a period of accumulation, despite some expected good results for many companies. In the absence of real proofs concerning an improvement of the global economy, proofs for which we believe we will wait some time, it’s not likely for the national stock market to enjoy the support, especially the external one.
Last week
Last week BET went down 2.591 percent, while BET-C and BET-FI lost 1.50% and 1.93%, respectively. The average trading volume lost 28.6% to 23.34 million lei daily, while the market capitalization decreased 1.65 percent to 68.27 billion lei.
BVB indices
| indices | Change | Feb 01, 2008 | Feb 08, 2008 |
| BET | -2.59% | 7493.53 | 7299.08 |
| BET-C | -1.50% | 5163.47 | 5085.96 |
| BET-FI | -1.93% | 62264.3 | 61060.28 |
BET (chart)
Top Extremes
Zimtub managed once again to be the performerof the week, as the shares went up more than 21%, on a growing trading volume. ELJ went up 20.69%, as 10.8% of the company’s capital was sold to Metex Big by Tricoreal (the 2 companies merged through absorption). Electroaparataj reported a 5.67 million lei loss for the first 3 quarters of 2007, after the activity relocation.
TOP 5 - PRICE GAINERS [RON]
| Symbol | Change | Feb 01, 2008 | Feb 08, 2008 |
| ZIM | 21.74% | 3.45 | 4.2 |
| ELJ | 20.69% | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| ENP | 13.85% | 3.9 | 4.44 |
| MECF | 11.32% | 0.53 | 0.59 |
| EFO | 7.14% | 1.68 | 1.8 |
ZIM (chart)
Altur suffered the most serious correction of the week, as the shares lost 8.64%. According to the BSE communiqué, Mecanica Rotes, one of Altur’s shareholders proposed another capital increase, the third within one year. Among the top price losers, TEL shares went down 8.5% on a growing trading level. The company will release its financial statements for 2007 and despite the pessimistic managers’ prognosis (a 70% decline of the income as compared to the one of the previous year) the results could positively surprise the investors, as it happened several times.
TOP 5 - PRICE LOSERS [RON]
| Symbol | Change | Feb 01, 2008 | Feb 08, 2008 |
| ALT | -8.64% | 0.081 | 0.074 |
| TEL | -8.50% | 30.6 | 28 |
| ECT | -6.82% | 0.088 | 0.082 |
| BCC | -6.42% | 0.358 | 0.335 |
| MPN | -6.33% | 0.379 | 0.355 |
ALT (chart)
Top Volume
TLV, BRD, SNP and 2 out of the 5SIF’s (SIF Oltenia and SIF Moldova) were the most traded last week, while compared to its total number of shares the most significant trades were conducted with Zimtub shares, followed by SIF Moldova.
TOP 5 - TOTAL VOLUME [RON]
| Symbol | Volume |
| TLV | 15,748,671 |
| SIF5 | 15,206,897 |
| BRD | 13,340,609 |
| SNP | 12,306,547 |
| SIF2 | 10,961,422 |
TOP 5 - VOLUME (% of subscribed capital)
| Symbol | Volume / Number of Shares |
| ZIM | 1.88% |
| SIF2 | 0.76% |
| SIF5 | 0.75% |
| SIF4 | 0.71% |
| ENP | 0.58% |
This year, up until now...
Since the beginning of the year BET and BET-C went down 25.71 and 23.70 percent, respectively, while BET-FI is 22.38 percent lower than its level on 21st of December 2007. The SIFs, Banca Transilvania and BRD-GSG had the highest trading volume for this period. The trades with Siretul Pascani, SIF Moldova, SIF Oltenia, broker Cluj and SIF Muntenia had the largest proportion in the companies’ capital.
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Copyright: 2006 SSIF Confident Invest Bucuresti SA. All rights reserved.
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Phone: +40 21 320 21 02, fax: +40 21 320 21 03, e-mail: research@confidentinvest.ro, web site: http://www.confidentinvest.ro
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Weekly Update Feb 08 2008.pdf, 76 Kb
