Month of April has again recorded higher overall turnover than previous month. Turnover has increased for more then EUR 29mn in absolute terms or 12.14% increase. market Cap also continues its increasing trend with steady growth of 21.85%.Hoewher this increase of market capitalization is due to mass inclusion of till this month unlisted companies on BSE. In category of Top Ten issuers, banks again were leaders with turnover amounting at approximately EUR 73mn. That fact leads us to conclusion that trading with banks shares is still the most attractive at Belgrade Stock exchange
Out of 19 trading days, Belex line index increased 16 times, while it closed lower 3 times. It closed 15.35% higher month-on-month. The largest single day increase of 2.78% was recorded on April 16th, while the largest single day decrease was 2.10% on April 23rd. index had the highest value of 4,966.73 on April 30th, which is its record high.
April will stay marked as the month of enlargement of share solvency followed with a huge turnover value thanks to inclusion of large number of companies who were unlisted on BSE till April,BSE also recorded one major event during the month of April and that was inclusion of Tigar shares on A listing which is to be the first one on BSE,there are also some predictions that some other companies will follow the path of Tigar in a effort to attract new investors but that is yet to be seen. In the month of April there was also one additional factor who contributed to the enlargement of turnover value at BSE and that is acquire of Putnik a.d. that was conducted on the BSE by Cyprus based company Acciona investments ltd.for 44mn EUR.Hoewer top ten by turnover still consists of almost 50% of banks in it’s turnover value and it is due to the recent announcements of their positive annual balance sheet reports.Aik bank still remains one of the most profitable bank in it’s sector with highest ROA among all other banks in Serbia.
| Gainers and Losers | ||||
| Issuer | Price Mar 30th | Price May 30th | Monthly | |
| EUR | EUR | Change | Volume | |
| GAINERS | ||||
| Lepenka | 2.3 | 9.41 | 304.26 | 111,205 |
| Privredna banka Pan?evo | 191.62 | 774.53 | 300.00 | 17 |
| Medela | 87.04 | 327.04 | 271.83 | 4,663 |
| Stari Grad UP | 31.87 | 118.92 | 269.23 | 6,730 |
| Energoprojekt urbanizam i arhitektura | 4.19 | 14.87 | 250.88 | 154 |
| Prvi Maj PK | 14.71 | 44.39 | 198.58 | 126,589 |
| Univerzal-Holding | 35.55 | 102.82 | 186.21 | 10,458 |
| Energoprojekt niskogradnja | 7.04 | 19.82 | 178.75 | 1,878 |
| Banat fabrika ulja | 147.11 | 396.41 | 166.67 | 7,147 |
| Energoprojekt hidroin?enjering | 9.19 | 24.78 | 166.67 | 1,280 |
| LOSERS | ||||
| Seme Sombor | 36.78 | 0.37 | 99.00 | 22,126 |
| Zobnatica | 861.88 | 98.48 | 88.69 | 638 |
| Sigurnost Vra?ar | 21.2 | 3.96 | 81.49 | 21 |
| Hemos | 19.61 | 6.5 | 67.19 | 50 |
| Tamnava | 134.85 | 49.55 | 63.64 | 1,084 |
| ?itobanat | 12.26 | 5.14 | 58.50 | 1,042 |
| Energoprojekt Entel | 38.14 | 16.12 | 58.18 | 602 |
| Betonjerka ?a?ak | 35.48 | 18.36 | 48.79 | 36 |
| ?idtrans | 12.63 | 6.57 | 48.54 | 7 |
| Zlatibor Standard | 0.49 | 0.26 | 47.50 | 22,647 |
*Fixed Income*
Foreign Currency Savings Bonds
Trading Volume for the month march gained some increase when compared to the previous month. The overall volume has decreased by 1.93% or 307k in nominal terms. During 19 trading days in April bonds that were among most traded ones were those with series A2008 with a value of 4.255.267 mn and its share in overall turnover for this month was 26.19%. Contrary to the month of march, both long end and short end were active. Long end volume represented 55.08% of the overall or 9.111mn in nominal terms. Short end accounted 44.92% of the overall volume or 7.136mn in nominal terms.What stands out of the crowd is that series A2007 gained biggest positive change among all other bonds gaining increase of 5.31% on the contrary to that they were among those series who were least traded among all others. Please note that these figures only represent the trades executed at Belgrade Stock exchange and do not account for the OTC market where volumes larger than BSE volumes. A2014, A20016, A2007,and all recorded yield gains.When it comes to the top losers for this month we can note that series A2008 was a top one with a yield drop of 0.40% followed by A2014 with a yield drop of 0.32%.
Treasury Bills
There was only on T-Bill auction in April. Auction was held on 24th of April respectively. This single auction was for three month securities. This month auction continue previous month trend in yield dropping. Yield has dropped for 1.15% comparing with the previous auction from March. Realization rate for this auction was 100%.Nominal value of t-bills auction in April was 12.38mn EUR .
*Macroeconomic Indicators*
Forex market
Regarding value of RSD for this month, decrease of EUR compared to RSD could be noticed with a change of 1.0406%.Regarding this we can conclude that NBS is still on its hard monetary course. We can also note that USD lost its value compared to the last month of more than considerable 3.1447%
| Major currencies vs. RSD | |||
| Mar 30th | Apr 30th | Change | |
| EUR/RSD | 81.5742 | 80.7253 | -1.0406% |
| USD/RSD | 61.1088 | 59.1871 | -3.1447% |
| CHF/RSD | 50.2645 | 49.1179 | -2.2811% |
| GBP/RSD | 120.0503 | 118.0712 | -1.6486% |
Inflation
The retail prices of goods and services in the Republic of Serbia in April 2007 increased on average by 0.9% if compared to the previous month (the prices of goods increased by 1.2% and the prices of services increased by 0.1%). The consumer price index in the Republic of Serbia in April 2007 increased by 0.8% on average if compared to the previous month. The difference between the retail price index and the consumer price index resulted from the various influence that the growth of prices of particular items had on these indices.
Industrial Production
The industrial production in the Republic of Serbia in March 2007 increased by 2.5% when compared to March 2006 and saw a growth of 4.3% if compared to the 2006 average. Observed as divided by sections, in March 2007, compared to the same month 2006, the trends were noted as follows the section of manufacturing - growth of 6.1%, the section of electric power, gas and water supply - fall of 9.5%, the section of mining and quaring - fall of 1.2%. The data on industrial production by destination in March 2007, compared to March 2006, expressed growth in the production of the following goods: durable consumer goods by 66.9%, intermediate products, energy excluded by 8.5%, non-durable consumer goods by 6.8%.
Foreign Trade
The overall external trade in the Republic of Serbia for the period January-March 2007 amounted to USD 5,649.1mn, which was a 44.6% increase, compared to the same period 2006. The value of exports amounted to USD 1,823.5mn, which was a 46.8% increase when compared to the same period last year, while the value of imports amounted to USD 3,825.6mn, which was a 43.6% increase relative to the same period last year. The deficit for a period of January-March 2007 amounted to USD 2,002.1mn, which was an increase of 40.9% in relation to the same period last year. The imports increase for a period of January-March 2007 resulted from the imports of energy commodities, imports of copper and iron ores that are used for the production of basic and other metals and that presently have good prices in the world market. Increased demands (public and individual consumption).
Indicators Overview| Indicator | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar |
| Retail prices, change m-o-m | 0.10 | 0.40 | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| Annualized inflation | 6.60 | 6.50 | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| Average gross salary (EUR) | 524 | 424 | 444 | 447 |
| Discount rate | 8.50 | 8.50 | 8.50 | 8.50 |
| Wght. ave. lending rate in open market ops. | 15.30 | 13.92 | 12.99 | 11.40 |
| Commercial banks lending rate m-o-m | 1.26 | 1.20 | 1.13 | 1.04 |
| Foreign Currency Reserves (in million USD) | 11,889 | 11,524 | 11,851 | 11,731 |
news Highlights
Acciona new owner of Putnik
Cuprom officially out of RTB Bor sale
Mobtel sale largest in eastern europe
Serbian stock market best world performer in Q1
Ministers sign pan-european pipeline declaration
***
Ivan Petrovic
Tel: +381 11 222 3666
Fax: +381 11 222 3656
ipetrovic@citadel-securities.com
www.citadel-securities.com
***
DISCLAIMER AND CONFIDENTIALITY Citadel Securities has based this document on Information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable, but it has not ndependently verified all the Information presented in this document. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or otherwise implied, is made as to the airness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the Information and opinions contained in this document, or otherwise arising in connection therewith.Expressions of opinion herein are those of the research department only and are subject to change without notice. Prices are latest for edition
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Citadel Monthly April Report, 225 Kb
