ZAGREB (Croatia), July 2 (SeeNews) – Croatia will hold parliamentary elections on Sunday, with the results of the latest opinion polls suggesting a tight race between ruling centre-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) and opposition Restart Coalition led by the Social Democratic Party (SDP).
The results also indicate that the popularity of both opponents has declined in the past month and none of them is likely to grab the majority of the vote.
The vote for members of Croatia's 151-seat parliament was originally due to take place in the autumn of 2020, four years after the last elections held in September 2016, but HDZ decided to bring it forward by several months, saying that the country's post-coronavirus recovery plan should be drawn by a government enjoying the citizens' support for a full four-year term in office.
However, many analysts and opposition representatives see in the move an attempt by HDZ to draw upon the recent rise in public support for the party, attributed to the citizens' positive estimate of the way the government has handled the coronavirus crisis. Moreover, the impact of the crisis is expected to be fully felt in the autumn when the loss of tourism revenue in summer months will become more tangible.
In the past days, however, a surge in the number of new infections in Croatia has added to the uncertainty of the election outcome, alongside with the big number of undecided voters.
In January, SDP outran HDZ in opinion polls for the first time since HDZ came to power four years ago, after SDP candidate Zoran Milanovic won the presidential election, defeating incumbent president Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic backed by HDZ in a runoff vote.
HDZ regainеd its lead in March, which coincided with the outbreak of the coronavirus crisis in Croatia and the introduction of the first set of measures by the HDZ-led government aimed at limiting its impact on the economy.
The ruling party has led in approval ratings since then but the most recent polls conducted in June showed its lead is shrinking.
A survey conducted by Ipsos market research agency for Nova TV showed on June 26 that HDZ would win 26.7% of the vote, down from May's 28%, while the Restart Coalition would garner 24.6% support, slightly down from 24.9%.
Third will be the Homeland Movement (Domovinski Pokret) of musician Miroslav Skoro, who came in third in the first round of the presidential elections, and its two partners - conservative Croatian Sovereignists and the recently formed Bloc for Croatia, attracting the support of 11.1% of the voters, down from May's 13.5%.
The only other political formation that would pass the 5.0% threshold for entry into parliament, is the liberal party Bridge of Independent Lists (Most), which backed Skoro in the presidential vote but is running independently in the upcoming general election. It had the support of 6.8% of the voters in June, up from May's 4.8%, in the Ipsos survey.
The survey was conducted during June 22-24 among 978 respondents, with a maximum margin of error of plus/minus 3.3%.
At the same time, the latest survey conducted by Promocija Plus agency for public broadcaster HRT showed on June 27 a tiny lead for the Restart Coalition in terms of the potential number of its members of parliament.
Croatian citizens will vote for MPs in 12 constituencies across the country. Ten constituencies elect a fixed number of 14 MPs each. Voters not residing in Croatia cast ballots in 11th constituency and elect 3 MPs, while national minorities elect a total of 8 MPs in 12th constituency.
The poll commissioned by HRT showed that the Restart Coalition would win 52 seats and HDZ will have 51 seats in the new parliament, out of a total of 140 allocated to these constituencies. Skoro's coalition would have 17 and Most 3 seats in the 10 constituencies.
The survey was carried out during June 14-22 among 6,000 people, with a +/-4% margin of error, which showed that the percentage of undecided voters in some constituencies is above 10%.
Another survey that probed voters' preferences across constituencies was conducted by Promocija Plus for public broadcaster RTL Hrvatska. The first results published on June 30 show the preferences in Zagreb, which is divided into four constituencies. According to those results, the Restart Coalition and HDZ are head to head, with the former expected to grab a total of 21 fixed seats in the four constituencies and the latter remaining with 20 seats there.
Skoro's alliance is trailing behind with 7 seats, Most with 4 seats and the political platform of the coalition of green and left-wing movements Mozemo! (We can!) with 3 seats.
The survey was carried out during June 22-29 among 700 people in each of Zagreb's four constituencies, with a +/-3.7% margin of error. The results of the survey for the remaining constituencies will be published in the coming days.
On Sunday, 3.86 million eligible voters will be able to cast ballots at 6,999 polling stations in the tenth general election since Croatia declared independence from the former Yugoslavia in 1991.
Polling stations will open at 07:00 CET and close at 19:00 CET.
In the September 2016 snap election, HDZ won 61 of 151 seats in parliament, while an SDP-led coalition got 54 seats. Most won 13 seats, becoming the king maker, and signed a deal with HDZ to form a coalition government supported by the MPs from national minority parties.
However, Most left the coalition cabinet in April 2017 due to disagreement with HDZ over the way the government addressed the financial problems at privately held food-to-retail concern Agrokor.